Polar mesosphere summer echo strength in relation to solar variability and geomagnetic activity during 1997–2009

<jats:p>Abstract. This paper is based on measurements of Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE) with the 52 MHz radar ESRAD, located near Kiruna, in Northern Sweden, during the summers of 1997–2009. Here, a new independent calibration method allowing estimation of possible changes in antenna feed losses and transmitter output is described and implemented for accurate calculation of year-to-year variations of PMSE strength (expressed in absolute units – radar volume reflectivity η). The method is based on radar-radiosonde comparisons in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region simultaneously with PMSE observations. Inter-annual variations of PMSE volume reflectivity are found to be strongly positively correlated with the local geomagnetic K-index, both when averaged over all times of the day, and when considering 3-h UT intervals separately. Increased electron density due to energetic particle precipitation from the magnetosphere is suggested as one of the possible reasons for such a correlation. Enhanced ionospheric electric field may be another reason but this requires further study. Multi-regression analysis of inter-annual variations of PMSE η shows also an anti-correlation with solar 10.7 cm flux and the absence of any statistically significant trend in PMSE strength over the interval considered (13-years). Variations related to solar flux and K-index account for 86% of the year-to-year variations in radar volume reflectivity. </jats:p>