Modeling SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and association with mortality in hospitalized patients from the French COVID cohort
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- Nadège Néant
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Guillaume Lingas
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Quentin Le Hingrat
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Jade Ghosn
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Ilka Engelmann
- Univ. Lille, Virology Laboratory, EA3610, Institute of Microbiology, Centre Hospitalier-Universitaire de Lille, F-59037 Lille Cedex, France;
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- Quentin Lepiller
- Laboratoire de Virologie, Centre Hospitalier-Universitaire de Besançon, F-25000 Besançon, France;
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- Alexandre Gaymard
- Laboratoire de Virologie, Institut des Agents Infectieux, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Groupement Hospitalier Nord, F-69004 Lyon, France;
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- Virginie Ferré
- Service de Virologie, Centre Hospitalier-Universitaire de Nantes, F-44093 Nantes, France;
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- Cédric Hartard
- Laboratoire de Microbiologie, Centre Hospitalier-Universitaire de Nancy, F-54000 Nancy, France;
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- Jean-Christophe Plantier
- Normandie University, UNIROUEN Rouen, EA2656, Virology, Rouen University Hospital, F-76000 Rouen, France;
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- Vincent Thibault
- Virology, Pontchaillou University Hospital, F-35033 Rennes cedex, France;
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- Julien Marlet
- Laboratoire de Virologie, Centre Hospitalier-Universitaire de Bretonneau, F-37044 Tours, France;
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- Brigitte Montes
- Laboratoire de Virologie, Centre Hospitalier-Universitaire de Montpellier, F-34295 Montpellier, France;
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- Kevin Bouiller
- Infectious and Tropical Disease Department, Besancon University Hospital, F-25000 Besancon, France;
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- François-Xavier Lescure
- AP-HP, Hopital Bichat, Service de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Jean-François Timsit
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Emmanuel Faure
- Centre Hospitalier-Universitaire de Lille, Univ. Lille, Infectious Disease Department, CNRS, Inserm, U1019-UMR9017-CIIL, F-59000 Lille, France;
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- Julien Poissy
- Université de Lille, INSERM U1285, Centre Hospitalier-Universitaire de Lille, Pôle de réanimation, CNRS, UMR 8576-UGSF-Unité de Glycobiologie Structurale et Fonctionnelle, F-59000 Lille, France;
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- Christian Chidiac
- Infectious and Tropical Disease Department, Croix-Rousse Hospital, University Hospital of Lyon, F-69004 Lyon, France;
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- François Raffi
- Service de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Centre Hospitalier-Universitaire de Nantes, F-44093 Nantes, France;
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- Antoine Kimmoun
- Université de Lorraine, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy, INSERM U1116, F-CRIN INICRCT, Service de Médecine Intensive et Réanimation Brabois, F-54000 Nancy, France;
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- Manuel Etienne
- Infectious Diseases Department, Rouen University Hospital, F-76000 Rouen, France;
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- Jean-Christophe Richard
- Lyon University, CREATIS, CNRS UMR5220, INSERM U1044, INSA, F-69000 Lyon, France;
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- Pierre Tattevin
- Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care Unit, Pontchaillou University Hospital, F-35000 Rennes, France;
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- Denis Garot
- Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Tours, Service de Médecine Intensive Réanimation, F-37044 Tours Cedex 9, France;
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- Vincent Le Moing
- Tropical and Infectious Diseases, Saint Eloi Hospital, Université de Montpellier, Medical School, Montpellier University Hospital, F-34295 Montpellier Cedex 5, France;
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- Delphine Bachelet
- AP-HP, Hôpital Bichat, Department of Epidemiology Biostatistics and Clinical Research, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Coralie Tardivon
- AP-HP, Hôpital Bichat, Department of Epidemiology Biostatistics and Clinical Research, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Xavier Duval
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Yazdan Yazdanpanah
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- France Mentré
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Cédric Laouénan
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Benoit Visseaux
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
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- Jérémie Guedj
- Université de Paris, INSERM, IAME, F-75018 Paris, France;
説明
<jats:title>Significance</jats:title><jats:p>A detailed characterization of viral load kinetics and its association with disease evolution is key to understand the virus pathogenesis, identify high-risk patients, and design better treatment strategies. We here analyze the mortality and the virological information collected in 655 hospitalized patients, including 284 with longitudinal measurements, and we build a mathematical model of virus dynamics and survival. We predict that peak viral load occurs 1 d before symptom onset, on average, and that dynamics of decline after peak is slower in older patients. Viral load dynamics after hospital admission is an independent predictor of the risk of death, suggesting that prolonged viral shedding of high quantities of virus is associated with poor outcome in this population.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (8), e2017962118-, 2021-02-03
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences