An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
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- Huaiyu Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
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- Yonghong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
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- Yidan Li
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
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- Chieh-Hsi Wu
- School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
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- Bin Chen
- Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
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- Moritz U. G. Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
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- Bingying Li
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
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- Jun Cai
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
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- Bo Xu
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
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- Qiqi Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
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- Ben Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
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- Peng Yang
- Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China.
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- Yujun Cui
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
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- Yimeng Song
- Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
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- Pai Zheng
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Peking University, China.
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- Quanyi Wang
- Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China.
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- Ottar N. Bjornstad
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
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- Ruifu Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
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- Bryan T. Grenfell
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
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- Oliver G. Pybus
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
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- Christopher Dye
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
説明
<jats:title>The most effective interventions</jats:title> <jats:p> By 23 January 2020, China had imposed a national emergency response to restrict travel and impose social distancing measures on its populace in an attempt to inhibit the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, which measures were most effective is uncertain. Tian <jats:italic>et al.</jats:italic> performed a quantitative analysis of the impact of control measures between 31 December 2019 and 19 February 2020, which encompasses the Lunar New Year period when millions of people traveled across China for family visits. Travel restrictions in and out of Wuhan were too late to prevent the spread of the virus to 262 cities within 28 days. However, the epidemic peaked in Hubei province on 4 February 2020, indicating that measures such as closing citywide public transport and entertainment venues and banning public gatherings combined to avert hundreds of thousands of cases of infection. It is unlikely that this decline happened because the supply of susceptible people was exhausted, so relaxing control measures could lead to a resurgence. </jats:p> <jats:p> <jats:italic>Science</jats:italic> , this issue p. <jats:related-article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="doi" issue="6491" page="638" related-article-type="in-this-issue" vol="368" xlink:href="10.1126/science.abb6105">638</jats:related-article> </jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Science
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Science 368 (6491), 638-642, 2020-05-08
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
