The Seattle Heart Failure Model

DOI Web Site 56 Citations
  • Wayne C. Levy
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Dariush Mozaffarian
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • David T. Linker
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Santosh C. Sutradhar
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Stefan D. Anker
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Anne B. Cropp
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Inder Anand
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Aldo Maggioni
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Paul Burton
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Mark D. Sullivan
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Bertram Pitt
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Philip A. Poole-Wilson
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Douglas L. Mann
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....
  • Milton Packer
    From the University of Washington, Seattle (W.C.L., D.T.L., M.D.S.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass (D.M.); Merck Research Laboratories, Blue Bell, Pa (S.C.S.); Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK (S.D.A., P.A.P.-W.); Pfizer Laboratories, Groton, Conn (A.B.C.); University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (I.A.); Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center, Florence, Italy (A.M.); Amgen Inc, Thousand Oaks, Calif (P.B....

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • Prediction of Survival in Heart Failure

Description

<jats:p> <jats:bold> <jats:italic>Background—</jats:italic> </jats:bold> Heart failure has an annual mortality rate ranging from 5% to 75%. The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a multivariate risk model to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival in heart failure patients with the use of easily obtainable characteristics relating to clinical status, therapy (pharmacological as well as devices), and laboratory parameters. </jats:p> <jats:p> <jats:bold> <jats:italic>Methods and Results—</jats:italic> </jats:bold> The Seattle Heart Failure Model was derived in a cohort of 1125 heart failure patients with the use of a multivariate Cox model. For medications and devices not available in the derivation database, hazard ratios were estimated from published literature. The model was prospectively validated in 5 additional cohorts totaling 9942 heart failure patients and 17 307 person-years of follow-up. The accuracy of the model was excellent, with predicted versus actual 1-year survival rates of 73.4% versus 74.3% in the derivation cohort and 90.5% versus 88.5%, 86.5% versus 86.5%, 83.8% versus 83.3%, 90.9% versus 91.0%, and 89.6% versus 86.7% in the 5 validation cohorts. For the lowest score, the 2-year survival was 92.8% compared with 88.7%, 77.8%, 58.1%, 29.5%, and 10.8% for scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The overall receiver operating characteristic area under the curve was 0.729 (95% CI, 0.714 to 0.744). The model also allowed estimation of the benefit of adding medications or devices to an individual patient’s therapeutic regimen. </jats:p> <jats:p> <jats:bold> <jats:italic>Conclusions—</jats:italic> </jats:bold> The Seattle Heart Failure Model provides an accurate estimate of 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival with the use of easily obtained clinical, pharmacological, device, and laboratory characteristics. </jats:p>

Journal

  • Circulation

    Circulation 113 (11), 1424-1433, 2006-03-21

    Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)

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