Probing the Fast and Slow Components of Global Warming by Returning Abruptly to Preindustrial Forcing
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- Isaac M. Held
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
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- Michael Winton
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
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- Ken Takahashi
- Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima, Peru
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- Thomas Delworth
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
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- Fanrong Zeng
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
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- Geoffrey K. Vallis
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2010-05-01
- DOI
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- 10.1175/2009jcli3466.1
- 公開者
- American Meteorological Society
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説明
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>The fast and slow components of global warming in a comprehensive climate model are isolated by examining the response to an instantaneous return to preindustrial forcing. The response is characterized by an initial fast exponential decay with an e-folding time smaller than 5 yr, leaving behind a remnant that evolves more slowly. The slow component is estimated to be small at present, as measured by the global mean near-surface air temperature, and, in the model examined, grows to 0.4°C by 2100 in the A1B scenario from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), and then to 1.4°C by 2300 if one holds radiative forcing fixed after 2100. The dominance of the fast component at present is supported by examining the response to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 and by the excellent fit to the model’s ensemble mean twentieth-century evolution with a simple one-box model with no long times scales.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Journal of Climate
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Journal of Climate 23 (9), 2418-2427, 2010-05-01
American Meteorological Society
