Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections
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- Orly Razgour
- Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom;
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- Brenna Forester
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1878;
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- John B. Taggart
- Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, United Kingdom;
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- Michaël Bekaert
- Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, United Kingdom;
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- Javier Juste
- Estación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientifica (CSIC), 41092 Seville, Spain;
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- Carlos Ibáñez
- Estación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientifica (CSIC), 41092 Seville, Spain;
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- Sébastien J. Puechmaille
- Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier (ISEM), University of Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier, France;
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- Roberto Novella-Fernandez
- Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom;
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- Antton Alberdi
- Evolutionary Genomics, University of Copenhagen, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark;
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- Stéphanie Manel
- Centre d’Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive (CEFE), Université de Recherche Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL), École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université de Montpellier, 34293 Montpellier, France
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2019-05-06
- 権利情報
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- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- DOI
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- 10.1073/pnas.1820663116
- 公開者
- National Academy of Sciences
この論文をさがす
説明
<jats:p>Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 (21), 10418-10423, 2019-05-06
National Academy of Sciences
