Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus

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  • Masahiro Watanabe
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute the University of Tokyo Kashiwa Chiba Japan
  • Youichi Kamae
    National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan
  • Masakazu Yoshimori
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute the University of Tokyo Kashiwa Chiba Japan
  • Akira Oka
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute the University of Tokyo Kashiwa Chiba Japan
  • Makiko Sato
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA
  • Masayoshi Ishii
    Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan
  • Takashi Mochizuki
    Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Kanagawa Japan
  • Masahide Kimoto
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute the University of Tokyo Kashiwa Chiba Japan

書誌事項

公開日
2013-06-17
権利情報
  • http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor
DOI
  • 10.1002/grl.50541
公開者
American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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説明

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The rate of increase of global‐mean surface air temperature (SAT<jats:sub>g</jats:sub>) has apparently slowed during the last decade. We investigated the extent to which state‐of‐the‐art general circulation models (GCMs) can capture this hiatus period by using multimodel ensembles of historical climate simulations. While the SAT<jats:sub>g</jats:sub> linear trend for the last decade is not captured by their ensemble means regardless of differences in model generation and external forcing, it is barely represented by an 11‐member ensemble of a GCM, suggesting an internal origin of the hiatus associated with active heat uptake by the oceans. Besides, we found opposite changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency (<jats:italic>κ</jats:italic>), weakening in models and strengthening in nature, which explain why the models tend to overestimate the SAT<jats:sub>g</jats:sub> trend. The weakening of <jats:italic>κ</jats:italic> commonly found in GCMs seems to be an inevitable response of the climate system to global warming, suggesting the recovery from hiatus in coming decades.</jats:p>

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