On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change
-
- Mark C. Urban
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Road, Unit 3043, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
-
- Josh J. Tewksbury
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, 24 Kincaid Hall, PO Box 351800, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
-
- Kimberly S. Sheldon
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, 24 Kincaid Hall, PO Box 351800, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2012-01-04
- 権利情報
-
- https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/
- DOI
-
- 10.1098/rspb.2011.2367
- 公開者
- The Royal Society
この論文をさがす
説明
<jats:p>Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called ‘no-analogue’ communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
-
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
-
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 279 (1735), 2072-2080, 2012-01-04
The Royal Society