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- Marcia B. Baker
- Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
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- Gerard H. Roe
- Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2009-09-01
- DOI
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- 10.1175/2009jcli2647.1
- 公開者
- American Meteorological Society
この論文をさがす
説明
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>The framework of feedback analysis is used to explore the controls on the shape of the probability distribution of global mean surface temperature response to climate forcing. It is shown that ocean heat uptake, which delays and damps the temperature rise, can be represented as a transient negative feedback. This transient negative feedback causes the transient climate change to have a narrower probability distribution than that of the equilibrium climate response (the climate sensitivity). In this sense, climate change is much more predictable than climate sensitivity. The width of the distribution grows gradually over time, a consequence of which is that the larger the climate change being contemplated, the greater the uncertainty is about when that change will be realized. Another consequence of this slow growth is that further efforts to constrain climate sensitivity will be of very limited value for climate projections on societally relevant time scales. Finally, it is demonstrated that the effect on climate predictability of reducing uncertainty in the atmospheric feedbacks is greater than the effect of reducing uncertainty in ocean feedbacks by the same proportion. However, at least at the global scale, the total impact of uncertainty in climate feedbacks is dwarfed by the impact of uncertainty in climate forcing, which in turn is contingent on choices made about future anthropogenic emissions.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Journal of Climate
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Journal of Climate 22 (17), 4574-4589, 2009-09-01
American Meteorological Society