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- Terence P. Dawson
- School of the Environment, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland, UK.
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- Stephen T. Jackson
- Department of Botany, Program in Ecology, and Berry Biodiversity Conservation Center, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA.
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- Joanna I. House
- QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK.
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- Iain Colin Prentice
- QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK.
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- Georgina M. Mace
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Division of Biology, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2011-04
- DOI
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- 10.1126/science.1200303
- 公開者
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
この論文をさがす
説明
<jats:p>Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species’ natural resilience. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Science
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Science 332 (6025), 53-58, 2011-04
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)