Optimizing resource allocation for vaccine production against seasonal and pandemic influenza by means of epidemic modeling

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Other Title
  • 感染症流行の数理モデルによるインフルエンザワクチン製造の資源配分の最適化
  • カンセンショウ リュウコウ ノ スウリ モデル ニ ヨル インフルエンザワクチン セイゾウ ノ シゲン ハイブン ノ サイテキカ

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Abstract

       An emerging influenza pandemic has been observed, and devastating recurrent waves are anticipated. Although production of a pandemic vaccine has already started, an upper limit of production-capacity exists, and moreover, the seasonal influenza vaccine also has to be manufactured. The present study proposes an optimization method for resource allocation of vaccine production. If immunization coverage of the pandemic vaccine can achieve close to its own threshold, spending all resources for the pandemic vaccine is not optimal. Provided that our model sufficiently captures the realism, optimal allocation for the pandemic vaccine in the next year would be 82.2% among a total of 50 million vaccines, minimizing the expected number of deaths. If the reproduction number of the pandemic strain is greater than 0.9 times that of the seasonal strain, spending all the remaining resources in this year for the pandemic vaccine is deemed appropriate. [This abstract is not included in the PDF]<br>

Journal

  • SEISAN KENKYU

    SEISAN KENKYU 61 (4), 797-803, 2009

    Institute of Industrial Science The University of Tokyo

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