A Fire-Spreading Model with Random Points Associated with Random Break-Out Time

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Other Title
  • 出火の地点と時刻がランダムな多発火災の延焼モデル
  • 出火の地点と時刻がランダムな多発火災の延焼モデル--空間ポアソン分布に基づく確率論的アプローチ
  • シュッカ ノ チテン ト ジコク ガ ランダムナ タハツ カサイ ノ エンショウ モデル クウカン ポアソン ブンプ ニ モトズク カクリツロンテキ アプローチ
  • 空間ポアソン分布に基づく確率論的アプローチ
  • A Stochastic Approach Based on the Spatial Poisson Distribution

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Abstract

As it is well known, post-earthquake fires cause significant harm to urban area and human populations. In this paper, a fire-spreading model in urban area with random points associated with random break-out time is constructed. The main objective of the study is to calculate a burn down rate of urban area after big earthquake. Fire-spreading areas are assumed to be circular disks or egg shaped disks. The latter is to model spreading speed depending on wind. In summary, the burn down rate is expressed as an exponential function of the average area of existing fires.

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