Destructive Earthquake: Forecast and Disaster Prevention Measures. Strategy and Prospects for Earthquake Prediction.

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  • MATSUZAWA Toru
    Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University

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  • 地震災害を考える　　予測と対策　　地震予知の戦略と展望
  • ジシン ヨチ ノ センリャク ト テンボウ

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Abstract

Recent seismological studies and numerical simulation based on rate- and statedependent friction law indicate that regularly-occurring characteristic earthquake models can be used for long-term earthquake prediction. GPS data and repeating earthquake data have enabled us to estimate the distributions of slip deficits on plate boundaries. Thus, after we experience one cycle of a large earthquake, we will be able to estimate slip distribution as well as the incidence of the next earthquake to a considerable extent by monitoring the slip deficit. Based on this background, I propose the following three projects that should be carried out in this new century. 1) Improving the accuracy and resolution to estimate slip deficit distribution. 2) Investigating the nature of asperities and aseismic slip areas. 3) Verification of the slow slips in the deeper extensions of active faults.

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