Preparations for the Coming Large Earthquakes at the Nankai Trough. The Influence of Philipine Sea Plate Structure on Great Nankai Trough Earthquakes Inferred from the Rupture Process of the 1946 Nankai Earthquake.

  • CUMMINS Phil R.
    Institute for Frontier Research on Earth Evolution, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center
  • BABA Toshitaka
    Institute for Frontier Research on Earth Evolution, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center
  • HORI Takane
    Institute for Frontier Research on Earth Evolution, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center
  • KANEDA Yoshiyuki
    Institute for Frontier Research on Earth Evolution, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center

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Other Title
  • 次の南海トラフ巨大地震に備えて  1946年南海地震震源過程から推定された南海トラフ巨大地震に対するフィリピン海プレート形状の影響
  • 1946ネン ナンカイ ジシン シンゲン カテイ カラ スイテイ サレタ ナンカイ トラフキョダイジシン ニ タイスル フィリピンカイ プレート ケイジョウ ノ エイキョウ

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Abstract

By carefully analyzing the source process of the 1946 Nankai earthquake and its correlation with plate boundary structure, we attempt to explain the occurrence pattern of historical earthquakes in the Nankai Trough, in which great earthquakes tend to rupture separately either the western or eastern portions of the Nankai Trough. The source process of the 1946 earthquake consists of two major subevents, each corresponding to segments A and B, defined by Ando (1975), which have long been thought to correspond to units of earthquake rupture in the western Nankai Trough. Furthermore, rupture in each subevent begins near the eastern edge of the respective segment, where there are pronounced contortions of the plate boundary : a subducting seamount chain off Cape Muroto and a rapid change in subduction angle beneath the Kii Peninsula. We suggest that these seismotectonic features of the plate boundary shape control to some extent the pattern of great earthquake occurrence in the Nankai Trough.

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