Relation between Swarm Activities and Strong Earthquakes in Izu Peninsula

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  • 伊豆半島の群発活動と強い地震の関係について
  • イズ ハントウ ノ グンパツ カツドウ ト ツヨイ ジシン ノ カンケイ ニ

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Abstract

The relationship between swarm activities on Izu Peninsular and its neighboring area and the possibility of an earthquake occuring afterward is irregular, and at present we cannot predict when a strong earthquake will occur. We have studied earthquakes of M≥5. 8 that occurred in this district and obtained the following relationship:<br>Y=-40±0.9X<br>Where X is a comparison value between the starting day of swarm activities and a calculated day when an earthquake M≥6 is expected to occure after a destructive earthquake, and Y is a comparison value between the starting day of swarm activities and the day when an earthquake of M≥6 actually occured.<br>When “X” is a negative value, it is calculated using the negative sign.<br>When “X” is equal to ±44, “Y” becomes zero. In other words, if the comparison value between the starting day of swarm activities and calculated value (day) of an earthquake of M≥6 is ±44 (days), a strong earthquake (M≥5.8) would occur immediately after the first day of the swarm activities.

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