Influence of rural socioeconomic characteristics on rice yield damage: A case study using GIS in Motegi-cho and Ichikai-cho, Tochigi

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  • 集落の社会・経済属性が水稲収量被害に及ぼす影響:栃木県、市貝町・茂木町におけるGIS を用いた事例研究

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Crop yield variation caused primarily by extreme weather events is a major risk in farm management. Farmers try to reduce yield damage through sufficient cultivation management. The damage can be correlated to the socioeconomic characteristics of rural areas, and such characteristics are represented by indices of labor, land, and capital. Understanding the nature of these relationships is important for the effective planning of agricultural policies. In addition, the understanding would allow a more realistic assessment of the impact of global warming on agricultural production when they are included in assessment models. Thus, an objective of this study was to reveal the qualitative relationship between damage in paddy rice and rural socioeconomic characteristics. The results showed that both the magnitude and interannual variability of damage is comparatively larger in areas with a higher ratio of non-commercial farm households, smaller cultivated paddy land under management, larger abandoned arable fields, lower percentage of young residents, and higher percentage of elderly ones. Such relationships are consistent throughout various topographic conditions. Two hypotheses are suggested to explain the comparative largeness in the magnitude and variability of damage: first, the deterioration of quantity and/or quality in labor resources; second, the lack of willingness to manage cultivations efficiently due to the lower percentage of on-farm income. The hypotheses propose the possibility that commercial farm households succeed in mitigating the damage by applying sufficient labor resources and self-reliant efforts, while elderly farmers fail at effective management due to shortage in resources and/or willingness.

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