Restatement of the concepts of ‘Uncertainty’ used in Risk Analysis

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  • リスクアナリシスで使用される「不確実性」概念の再整理
  • リスクアナリシス デ シヨウ サレル フカクジツセイ ガイネン ノ サイセイリ

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Abstract

The term of ‘Uncertainty’ in risk analysis has multiple meanings. Some literature has classified the concepts of uncertainty to construct an available taxonomy of uncertainty in risk analysis, but it is not yet accomplished.<br>The purpose of this paper is to restate the concepts of ‘Uncertainty’ used in risk analysis. This research comprehensively reviewed previous papers and compared the meaning of the uncertainty term and the dimensions used in uncertainty classification. As a result, some viewpoints and dimensions are extracted. It suggests the following five viewpoints. (i) ‘States of knowledge’ have three dimentions: risk, ambiguity, and ignorance. (ii)‘Types of uncertainty’ have three dimentions : quantity, model, and linguistic uncertainty. (iii) ‘Sources of uncertainty’ have two dimentions: variability and lack of knowledge. (iv) ‘The border of ignorance’ has two dimentions: areas of knowledge and areas of ignorance. And (v) ‘disagreement’ has two dimentions:individual uncertainty and social uncertainty.

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