Characteristics of the Largest Recorded Annual Maximum Monthly Precipitation in an Atmospheric Global Climate Model Experiment

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  • 大気全球気候モデル実験における既往最大月降水量の再現期間の性質
  • タイキ ゼン キュウ キコウ モデル ジッケン ニ オケル キオウ サイダイツキ コウスイリョウ ノ サイゲン キカン ノ セイシツ

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The present study investigates the reproducibility of the largest recorded annual maximum monthly precipitation and its statistical characteristics in an atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) experiment.The AGCM result shows geographical features of the return period of the largest recorded annual maximum monthly precipitation. The cumulative distribution function of the AGCM for global land areas is quantitatively similar to that of the statistical theory, but not to that of the observation. Moreover, the extreme value ratio, the largest recorded annual maximum monthly precipitation over the 10th one, shows the geographical patterns as well as the return period and large ratios appear only in limited areas. Detail analysis shows that a large return period such as 400-year is estimated with the combination of the extreme value ratio and the shape of the distribution; the extreme value ratio is large (small) when both L-skewness and L-kurtosis are large (small). These results provide useful information when applying the extreme values obtained from AGCM experiments to future projections in hydrology.

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