individual based modelを用いての公衆衛生的対応能力を明示的に考慮した天然痘対策の評価

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  • An Evaluation of Counter Measures for Smallpox Outbreak using an individual based model and Taking into Consideration the Limitation of Human Resources of Public Health Workers
  • individual based model オ モチイテ ノ コウシュウ エイセイテキ タイオウ ノウリョク オ メイジテキ ニ コウリョ シタ テンネントウタイサク ノ ヒョウカ

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Objective: To evaluate the guidelines of a plan of action for the initial phase of a smallpox outbreak using an individual based model.<br>Methods and Materials: We create a model in which one public health center is in charge of a city with a population of ten thousand and exposure of the agent occurs at a shopping mall. We compare the results of two counter measures, ring vaccination and mass vaccination, by the initial size of exposure, starting time of counter measures, and the number of public health workers.<br>Results: Simulation results show that the effectiveness of ring vaccination declines rapidly as the size of initial exposure increases if there is not a sufficient number of health workers. Conversely, if there is a sufficient number of health workers, the effectiveness does not decline very much even in the case of an increase in the size of the initial exposure. On the other hand, the effectiveness of mass vaccination is not heavily impacted by the size of the initial exposure.<br>Discussion: Ring vaccination is preferable to mass vaccination if the response starts rapidly and the size of the initial exposure is limited to less than twice the number of public health workers. If the number of those initially exposed is larger than twice the number of public health workers, ring vaccination is not effective. Therefore, it is important to decide the number of public health workers who will be assigned to control an outbreak according to this criterion. In order to recognize the size of the initial exposure immediately, we need to develop a statistical model to estimate it.

収録刊行物

  • 医療と社会

    医療と社会 16 (3), 275-284, 2006

    公益財団法人 医療科学研究所

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