Modelling Analysis of Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenario using Dynamic Optimal Power Generation Mix Model with High Temporal Resolution

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  • 高時間解像度動学的最適電源構成モデルによる電気自動車普及シナリオの分析
  • コウジカン カイゾウドドウガクテキ サイテキ デンゲン コウセイ モデル ニ ヨル デンキ ジドウシャ フキュウ シナリオ ノ ブンセキ

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Abstract

After the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japanese power generation planning needs to be rearranged reflecting on the technical movement in both power supply and demand sides; Fukushima nuclear accident has complicated the positioning of nuclear energy in Japan's long-term power generation mix due to its public acceptance and other associated issues such as nuclear waste management; the studies are more required about the maximum grid integration of variable renewables such as PV and wind power which are expected to potentially replace nuclear energy; in power demand side, an expected future introduction of electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) will have an impact on the grid management in electric power system. In this context, it is important to develop a computational tool to comprehensively analyze the optimal power generation mix and dispatch in a consistent way. This paper develops a dynamic high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model, as large-scale linear programming model with 18 million constraints and 8 million endogenous variables, and analyzes the optimal deployment of variable renewables (VR) and electric vehicles, considering the future possible nuclear scenario and CO2 regulation policy in Japan. As calculated optimal solutions, electric vehicle plays an important role to integrating variable renewable and treating the imbalance of VR surplus output.

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