書誌事項
- タイトル別名
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- Estimation Method of Prediction Interval of Solar Irradiance Based on Just-In-Time Modeling for Photovoltaic Output Prediction
- タイヨウコウ ハツデン シュツリョク ヨソク ノ タメ ノ Just-In-Time Modeling オ モチイタ ニッシャリョウ ヨソク シンライ クカン ノ スイテイ ホウホウ
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抄録
PV system recently attracts much attention on the back of environmental problems, antinuclear power movements and energy problems. Therefore, a large scale introduction of PV system is expected in the near future. On the other hand, a lot of PV systems connected to the power system bring on some problems. For example, a system voltage often drifts from the norm when the reverse power flow increase. Accordingly, it is necessary to perform an optimal system operation in order to utilize a solar energy to the maximum by installing energy buffers, e. g. storage batteries. Especially, the forecast information i.e., the reliability as well as predicted solar irradiance is essential for the effective operation. In this paper, we propose a way to estimate the prediction interval of the solar irradiance as an index of reliability by using Just-In-Time Modeling (JIT Modeling). We consider the accuracy of the prediction interval under many conditions and derive the high-precision estimation method. In addition, we also talk about the future outlook of this study.
収録刊行物
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- 電気学会論文誌Ｂ（電力・エネルギー部門誌）
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電気学会論文誌Ｂ（電力・エネルギー部門誌） 135 (3), 160-167, 2015
一般社団法人 電気学会
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詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390001204601934592
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- NII論文ID
- 130004869842
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- NII書誌ID
- AN10136334
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- ISSN
- 13488147
- 03854213
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- NDL書誌ID
- 026245101
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- 本文言語コード
- ja
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- データソース種別
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- JaLC
- NDL
- Crossref
- CiNii Articles
- KAKEN
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- 抄録ライセンスフラグ
- 使用不可