Generation Expansion Planning Simulation Considering Varieties of Uncertainties and Investment Option

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  • Manabe Yusuke
    Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, Hokkaido University
  • Hara Ryoichi
    Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, Hokkaido University
  • Kita Hiroyuki
    Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, Hokkaido University

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  • 不確実性と投資選択の多様性を考慮した電源開発計画シミュレーション
  • フカクジツセイ ト トウシ センタク ノ タヨウセイ オ コウリョ シタ デンゲン カイハツ ケイカク シミュレーション

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new simulation tool for generation expansion planning (GEP) considering variety of uncertainties and investment options. The proposed simulation tool can treat plural uncertainties such as demand growth or fuel price in future, and select adequate investment options such as construction, decommission and reconstruction of generation plant. The proposed simulation tool can also treat the electricity market under the deregulated environment. The influences for several elements - plural uncertainties, investments and competitor's behavior on GEP are discussed through case studies using the proposed simulation tool.

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