Development of air pollution forecast system (VENUS) and its validation

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  • 大気汚染予測システム（VENUS）の構築と検証
  • タイキ オセン ヨソク システム VENUS ノ コウチク ト ケンショウ

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We have developed an air pollution forecast system called VENUS (Visual atmospheric ENvironment Utility System). VENUS automatically calculates the concentrations on the day and the next day of nitrogen dioxide and the photochemical oxidants every night, and produces maps of the concentrations every morning on the web. The system involves the integration of the meteorological model RAMS and the air quality model CMAQ.<BR>The photochemical-oxidants reproducibility of VENUS was verified. The distribution of the concentration and time change in several prefectures were investigated for the high oxidant concentration event that occurred in Japan in May, 2009. The distribution and movement of the high concentration area were well reproduced though the reproducibility of the peak values was quantitatively restrictive. Moreover, the skill scores, such as the correlation coefficient, between the simulation and observations was investigated in May and August of the same year involving the hourly averaged concentration of the photochemical oxidants and its daily top 5% concentration in each prefecture. As a result, the top 5% concentration in particular showed a high correlation coefficient, while the bias and error were low.<BR>Based on these validation results, it was demonstrated that the VENUS has a sufficient accuracy to predict the daily high photochemical-oxidants concentrations in each prefecture in Japan.

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