Application of Bayesian Theorem to the Establishment of Probability of Failure Data for Equipments at Risk Based Inspection Planning

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  • リスクベース検査における機器の破損確率データ収集のためのベイズ定理の応用
  • リスクベース検査における機器の破損確率データ収集のためのベイズ定理の応用(第1報)ベイズの定理の原理
  • リスク ベース ケンサ ニ オケル キキ ノ ハソン カクリツ データ シュウシュウ ノ タメ ノ ベイズ テイリ ノ オウヨウ ダイ1ポウ ベイズ ノ テイリ ノ ゲンリ
  • (第一報 ベイズの定理の原理)
  • Principle of Bayesian theorem -1-

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Risk index has been becoming important in the management of plant equipments. Through the investigation activity named RBM committee, it has been clarified the one of the most difficult items to introduce RBI techniques to Japan is the establishment of data for probability of failure (PoF) . In order to establish PoF data, it is required to estimate it from few observed data. In US and European countries, Bayesian theorem has been widely used for this purpose. Since the theorem might become important as the risk management prevails in Japan, the fundamental principle is explained here.

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