Demand Simulation of Inter-Regional Railway Passengers Considering Multi-Mode Route Alternatives

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  • 混合経路の存在を考慮した幹線鉄道の需要シミュレーション
  • コンゴウ ケイロ ノ ソンザイ オ コウリョ シタ カンセン テツドウ ノ ジュヨウ シミュレーション

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This study attempts to develop a method for inter-regional train demand estimation considering multi-mode route alternatives. A special effort is made to avoid the path overlapping problem when using logit-type route choice models by adopting the C-logit type model. The characteristics of route choice behavior among multi-mode and single-mode routes are indicated on the basis of the original questionnaire survey data to reveal factors that apply to multi-mode route choice. On the basis of these factors, the modified C-logit type route choice model is applied to route choice behavior of inter-regional passengers to take path overlapping problems in a multi-mode inter-regional transportation network into account. Compared to the classic logit-type model, the developed model has a better performance, a conclusion drawn on the basis of AIC (Akaike's information criterion) and the adjusted likelihood ratio. A sample demand simulation is then conducted to demonstrate how the developed model can be applied in practice. The result indicates that the developed model successfully estimated route choice behavior in a multi-mode inter-regional transportation network.

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