Contributions of historical changes in sowing date and climate to U.S. maize yield trend: An evaluation using large-area crop modeling and data assimilation
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- IIZUMI Toshichika
- Agro-Meteorology Division, National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences
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- SAKURAI Gen
- Agro-Meteorology Division, National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences
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- YOKOZAWA Masayuki
- Graduate School of Engineering, Shizuoka University
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The consequences of changes observed in climate and management to yield trends in major crop-producing regions have implications for future food availability. We present an assessment of the impacts of historical changes in sowing date and climate to the maize yield trend in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1980 to 2006 by using large-area crop modeling and a data assimilation technique (i.e., the model optimization based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo method). Calibrated at a regional scale, the model captured the major characteristics of the changes reported in yield as well as the timing and length of maize growth periods across the Corn Belt. The simulation results using the calibrated model indicate that while the climate change observed for the period likely contributed to a decreasing yield trend, the positive contribution from the reported shift to an earlier sowing date offset the negative impacts. With the given spread in the assessment results across previous studies and in this study, the conclusion that the negative impacts of climate change on U.S. maize yield trend more likely derive from a decreasing trend in growing-season precipitation than to an increasing trend in temperature.
収録刊行物
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- 農業気象
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農業気象 70 (2), 73-90, 2014
日本農業気象学会
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詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390001204668652416
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- NII論文ID
- 130004878315
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- NII書誌ID
- AA11530034
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- ISSN
- 18810136
- 00218588
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- NDL書誌ID
- 025603882
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- 本文言語コード
- en
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- データソース種別
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- JaLC
- NDL
- Crossref
- CiNii Articles
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- 抄録ライセンスフラグ
- 使用不可