Prediction of dialysis patients in Japan : Based on Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy Registry

DOI 6 Citations 2 References
  • Nakai Shigeru
    Committee of Renal Data Registry, Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy
  • Wakai Kenji
    Committee of Renal Data Registry, Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy
  • Yamagata Kunihiro
    Committee of Renal Data Registry, Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy
  • Iseki Kunitoshi
    Committee of Renal Data Registry, Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy
  • Tsubakihara Yoshiharu
    Committee of Renal Data Registry, Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy

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  • わが国の慢性維持透析人口将来推計の試み

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Abstract

We estimated the future dialysis population in Japan based on the registry data of the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy (JRDR) during 2001 to 2010. We used the prevalence of dialysis patients in the annual JRDR from 2001 to 2010, and calculated the changes in number of dialysis patients from 2002 to 2010 (9 years). The annual rate of increase was plotted by linear model using the prevalent number in each year. (y=450.372044-0.222751x, R-square=0.7227, p=0.0037). Based on this formula, we estimated annual rate of increase and prevalence in the following years. Results were that the prevalence would reach to its maximum prevalence of 348,873 in 2021 (90% confidence interval: 302,868 to 401,119), then start to decline gradually.

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