A Study of Chronological Alterations in Correlation between Crude Death Rate and Birth Rate in Different Prefectures of Japan

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  • YANAGISAWA Fumiyoshi
    Department of Epidemialogy and Envionmental Medicine, Medical Research lnstitute, Tokyo Medical, and Dental Univ., Tokyo
  • MAEDA Hiroshi
    Depatment of Public Health, School of Medicine, Tokyo Medical and Dental Univ., Tokyo
  • IIDA Hideomi
    Department of Epidemialogy and Envionmental Medicine, Medical Research lnstitute, Tokyo Medical, and Dental Univ., Tokyo
  • MATSUOKA Yosuke
    Department of Epidemialogy and Envionmental Medicine, Medical Research lnstitute, Tokyo Medical, and Dental Univ., Tokyo
  • MAEDA Mikio
    Department of Epidemialogy and Envionmental Medicine, Medical Research lnstitute, Tokyo Medical, and Dental Univ., Tokyo
  • SHIMIZU Yoshihiro
    Department of Epidemialogy and Envionmental Medicine, Medical Research lnstitute, Tokyo Medical, and Dental Univ., Tokyo

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Other Title
  • 都道府県間における粗死亡率と出生率の相関に関する年次推移の検討
  • トドウフケンカン ニ オケル ソシボウリツ ト シュッショウリツ ノ ソウカン

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F. Yanagisawa and Y. Shimizu showed that there is a close inverse correlation with a correlation coefficient of -0.899 (1965) between the crude death rate and the birth rate in the economic zones of Japan set forth by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. We have recently made a study of how the correlation alters in the administrative zones, is, prefectures of Japan. The correlation coeffieients between the crude death rate and the birth rate during the period of from 1892 till 1975 showed normal correlations up to and including 1950, but changed into negative correlations from about 1959 on. It is that the correlation coefficients between the crude death rate and the birth rate in Japan changed into an negative correlation at about the time when Japanese economy got into the high growth age. Especially, the correlatin coefficients between the two parameters from 1964 on showed such a high negative correlation as -0.8. Detailed analysis of the available data is necessry for interpreting the sgnificance of this phenomenon, but at present stage of study, the difference in the agewise stratified population structure between the prefectures may be considered responsible for it. If the correlation not between the crude death rate and the birth rate but between the standardized death rate and the birth rate in 1970 is estimated, the coefficient still indicates an negative correlation, but the correlation coefficient is as low as -0.425. In ther words, it is demonstrated that the agewise stratified structure of population plays an important role in this phenomenon. However, if it is considered that the district where there is a large dependent population is agricultural prefectures, it may be considered that the neonatal death, rate in the district is high. The problem relating to the fact that chronological alterations in the correlation coefficient between the crude death rate and the birth rate have in recent years shown negative correlations, rebuire the analysis of factors responsible for this phenomenon by means of analyzing alterations the agewise stratified population structures in the prefectures, the difference in health problems between the prefectures and the status of widespread acceptance of conception control.

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