The effect of prison crowding on prisoners' violence in Japan: Testing with cointegration regressions and error correction models

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  • 共和分回帰・誤差修正モデルによる受刑者間暴力に対する収容率の効果の検証
  • キョウワ ブン カイキ ゴサ シュウセイ モデル ニ ヨル ジュケイシャ カン ボウリョク ニ タイスル シュウヨウリツ ノ コウカ ノ ケンショウ

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Abstract

This research examined the effect of prison population densities (PPD) on inmate-inmate prison violence rates (PVR) in Japan using one-year-interval time-series data (1972-2006). Cointegration regressions revealed a long-run equilibrium relationship between PPD and PVR. PPD had a significant and increasing effect on PVR in the long-term. Error correction models showed that in the short-term, the effect of PPD was significant and positive on PVR, even after controlling for the effects of the proportions of males, age younger than 30 years, less than one-year incarceration, and prisoner / staff ratio. The results were discussed in regard to (a) differences between Japanese prisons and prisons in the United States, and (b) methodological problems found in previous research.

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