Formulation of expectations in price fluctuation in Japan during the interwar period : an analysis using commodity futures price data

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Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 両大戦間期日本における物価変動予想の形成 : 商品先物価格データを用いた分析
  • リョウ タイセン カンキ ニホン ニ オケル ブッカ ヘンドウ ヨソウ ノ ケイセイ ショウヒン サキモノ カカク データ オ モチイタ ブンセキ

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Abstract

Many economic historians have studied macroeconomic policies during interwar Japan. Recent developments in the Japanese economy, such as long-term deflation and stagnation of economic growth, shed new light on the Japanese experience between the two world wars, and some researchers have started to apply new methods of economics and econometrics to the earlier period. This paper explores the formulation of expectations in price fluctuations in Japan during the interwar period. To this end, the paper employs quantitative analysis using commodity futures price data and narrative analysis of views expressed by market participants in business magazines at that time. This paper reveals that market participants in Japan paid great attention to differences in commodity prices between Japan and overseas markets when they formulated expectations in future price fluctuations. At the same time, they paid little attention to domestic factors such as monetary and fiscal policies as primary determinants of future price movements. This result implies that the market participants regarded the Japanese economy as a small and open economy within a fixed exchange rate system, not as a closed economy or a small and open economy within a flexible exchange rate system.

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Details

  • CRID
    1390001205096559232
  • NII Article ID
    110009419391
  • NII Book ID
    AN00406090
  • DOI
    10.20624/sehs.77.1_25
  • ISSN
    24239283
    00380113
  • NDL BIB ID
    11222561
  • Text Lang
    ja
  • Data Source
    • JaLC
    • NDL
    • CiNii Articles
  • Abstract License Flag
    Disallowed

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