Nuptiality and Determinants of Fertility in the late Tokugawa Period : A Population Profile of a Farming Village in Choshu-han

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  • 幕末における結婚と出生率決定メカニズム : 長州藩一農村の人口プロファイル
  • 幕末における結婚と出生率決定メカニズム--長洲藩--農村の人口プロファイル
  • バクマツ ニ オケル ケッコン ト シュッショウリツ ケッテイ メカニズム チ

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Abstract

The study of historical demography in England shows that nuptiality played a key role in determining fertility levels during the pre-industrial period. Several scholars have argued as to whether the same demographic pattern exists in Tokugawa Japan. For instance, Susan HANLEY insists that the mean age at first marriage or the percentage of women married is quite sensitive to short-term economic conditions; therefore, nuptiality also played a key role in determining fertility levels in Tokugawa Japan. On the other hand, Japanese scholars such as Osamu SAITO are quite skeptical about the possibility of similarities between Japan and western Europe, because of the relatively poor quality of the data which HANLEY used. Her study relies upon several series of shumon-aratame-cho, the annual village census, in Okayama-han. The data are weak because each series covers a relatively small population and there are also a certain number of records missing. In this paper I have used tojaku, the population registers, which were compiled within the Choshu-han region in the late Tokugawa period. The tojaku which I used here covers about one thousand inhabitants each year with almost no missing records; therefore, it can be considered a better source for the study of short-term demographic changes. In order to find the determinants of fertility, the mean age at first marriage, the marriage rate and the percentage of women married were regressed with the annual crude birth rate. No statistically significant relationship was found between these three variables and the crude birth rate. Interestingly, there was a clear positive relationship between the marriage rate and the mean age at first marriage. From this observation, I can conclude that relatively older women were given priority in marrying, and that nuptiality did not therefore play a key role in determining fertility levels in Tokugawa Japan.

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