選挙と出口調査

DOI 被引用文献2件

書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • Exit Polls in Japanese Election
  • —The Methods by NHK—
  • ―NHKの手法と課題―

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説明

Exit polls are now taking an important role in Election-Night broad-casting to project the final seats and analyze voter's choice on issues. NHK has done more than 180 exit polls by statistical methods since1993. In our sampling system, polling stations are sorted first by party strength and regional differences and then selected with a probability proportinal to size. We interview voters with a different interval set at each point with taking record of refusals. Interviewing are done for 6-7 hours except early morning, noon and evening assumed to cover about 70% of voters and not to make prediction worse. We weight targeted-interviewers to be proportion to real voters and calculate probability of candidate's win. Within the expected sampling error, past exit polls have shown mostly consitent‘ BIAS’ to specific party and candidates such as under-score for Communist Party. Refusals is a possible cause of BIAS, yet to be solved for improvement.

収録刊行物

  • 行動計量学

    行動計量学 23 (1), 20-27, 1996

    日本行動計量学会

被引用文献 (2)*注記

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詳細情報 詳細情報について

  • CRID
    1390001205181591808
  • NII論文ID
    130003822842
  • DOI
    10.2333/jbhmk.23.20
  • ISSN
    18804705
    03855481
  • 本文言語コード
    ja
  • データソース種別
    • JaLC
    • Crossref
    • CiNii Articles
  • 抄録ライセンスフラグ
    使用不可

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