An Analysis of Book Market with Consumption Externalities-Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling and Market Simulation

DOI 1 Citations 10 References
  • KINJO Keita
    College of Economics and Environmental Policy, Okinawa International University
  • EBINA Takeshi
    Faculty of Economics, Shinshu University

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Other Title
  • 消費の外部性を考慮した書籍市場の分析－階層ベイズモデリングと市場シミュレーション

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Description

Consumption behaviors of some goods, such as books, compact disks and so on, are affected by others' consumption behaviors( externalities), which are represented by the amount of sales and their ranking positions. Although numerous attempts have been made to the externalities with micro reference groups, in particular buzz marketing, little attention has been paid to those with macro reference groups. This paper proposes a hierarchical bayesian model with the externalities. We estimate the parameters in our model, based on responses to a survey on books, which is used for conjoint analysis. By using the results of estimation, we make a simulation on book sales, taking the externalities into account. We clarify what distributions the externalities are and what attributes are affected by the externalities. In the book market, female has been more affected than male by others' behaviors. In addition, the externalities have more effects on older people. We illustrate that the number of total sales is higher when externality is present than when absent in our model, using numerical examples.

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Details 詳細情報について

  • CRID
    1390001205185124992
  • NII Article ID
    130003368219
  • DOI
    10.3156/jsoft.25.690
  • ISSN
    18817203
    13477986
  • Text Lang
    ja
  • Article Type
    journal article
  • Data Source
    • JaLC
    • Crossref
    • CiNii Articles
    • KAKEN
  • Abstract License Flag
    Disallowed

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