Planning a management program for expanding bamboo forests based on scenario analysis

DOI Web Site
  • Miyazaki Yuko
    Graduate School of Environmental and Life Science, Okayama University
  • Mitsuhashi Hiromune
    Institute of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Hyogo:Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo
  • Osawa Takeshi
    National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • シナリオ分析に基づいた竹林の管理計画立案
  • シナリオ ブンセキ ニ モトズイタ チクリン ノ カンリ ケイカク リツアン

Search this article

Abstract

To manage the expansion of bamboo forests efficiently, it is necessary to predict where expansion is likely. However, predicting bamboo distribution using statistical models is challenging due to biased distributions, heterogeneous invasion histories, and strong neighbor effects. Furthermore, clonal and invasive species such as bamboo show a non-linear response to environmental factors. Here, we construct a spatial model to predict locations of high penetration probability after controlling for these problems, using data for bamboo distribution in Toyooka, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan. First, we used MaxEnt to reveal the full range of possible bamboo survival and to control for the effects of clonal growth. Second, we constructed a predictive model of invasion using environmental factors. The first model showed that distance from the source patch strongly affected expansion and that constraints from environmental factors were not significant. The final model explained about 70% of actual expansion. Scenario analyses showed that bamboo expansion is best controlled by removing smaller patches. Based on our results, we discuss issues in bamboo forest management and planning.

Journal

Keywords

Details 詳細情報について

Report a problem

Back to top