A Study on Decision Making by Probabilistic Analysis in Maritime Transportation System

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  • 海上輸送システムにおける意思決定の確率論的評価
  • カイジョウ ユソウ システム ニ オケル イシ ケッテイ ノ カクリツロンテキ ヒョウカ

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Abstract

To make appropriate decisions in maritime transportation systems it is necessary to consider a lot of elements like bunker fuel price, interest rates, transit port charges, optimal routes and other factors. There are various combinations of these values that it is difficult to treat the diversifications by conventional deterministic approaches. This research proposes the application of the probabilistic analysis for important and complex enterprise decision making. Inter-factory maritime transportation of a shipbuilding company between Japan and a foreign country is taken up as an example problem. The usefulness of probabilistic approach in this field is shown by demonstrating quantitative and reliable decision making analysis by decision making support system.

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