Hybrid time-prediction method based on the measurement of groundwater and surface displacement on a slope

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Other Title
  • 地表面変位と地下水位のモニタリングに基づく斜面崩壊発生予測
  • －既存の予測法との比較－
  • - Comparison with existing method -

Abstract

Hybrid time-prediction method based on the measurement of groundwater level and surface displacement, called as GLDIS method, is proposed and examined in this paper. This method assumes hyperbolic relationship between the groundwater level and the surface displacement on the slope. Non-linear regression analysis between the groundwater level and the surface displacement until any time before the failure of the slope is conducted for the hyperbolic relationship between the groundwater level and the surface displacement at first. It can produce the groundwater level at failure as a constant in the hyperbolic function. Then non-linear regression relationship between time and the groundwater level was derived based on the measured data until same time with the analysis between the groundwater level and the surface displacement. Incorporating the groundwater level at failure into the regression equation between time and the groundwater produces predicted failure time of the slope. Time-prediction by GLDIS method is conducted for 4 cases of the model experiments and the results are compared with predicted failure time by 3 kinds of prediction method based on Fukuzono’s theory. It reveals that the time variation of the predicted failure time by GLDIS method does not scatter so much and approaches to the actual failure time just before the failure of the slope. This result is much better than the results by other methods.

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