Simplified Estimation of Risk from Floods due to Earth Dam Breaches Using Response Surface Methods

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  • MIZUMA Keiji
    National Institute for Rural Engineering, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
  • NISHIMURA Shin-ichi
    Graduate School of Environmental and Life Science, Okayama University
  • SHIBATA Toshifumi
    Graduate School of Environmental and Life Science, Okayama University
  • SHUKU Takayuki
    Graduate School of Environmental and Life Science, Okayama University

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Other Title
  • 応答曲面法によるため池破堤リスクの簡易評価
  • オウトウ キョクメンホウ ニ ヨル タメイケハテイ リスク ノ カンイ ヒョウカ

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Abstract

Floods due to dam breaches have the greatest influential effect on hydraulic structures for irrigation and drainage, and estimating the costs of damage to these structures is important for risk assessment and management in agricultural land improvement projects. Existing methods for estimating damage costs require many types of asset data and usually a long time because of complications, and is not applicable for the practice in estimation of the damage costs. To overcome the problems, the authors have proposed a surrogate model called response surface (RS). This study aimed to verify the accuracy of the proposed RS by applying the surrogate model to risk evaluation of dam breaches due to rainstorms. We compared the damage costs of four earth dams calculated by using RS and existing methods, and found that the variances between the results of RS and existing methods was smaller than the unbiased variance of the RS based on 21 results of flow analysis. Therefore, the proposed method can easily estimate the risks of dam breaches due to rainstorms.

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