The Short- and Long-Term Contexts of the Japanese Power Shift in 2009

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  • 2009年政権交代の長期的・短期的背景
  • 2009ネン セイケン コウタイ ノ チョウキテキ タンキテキ ハイケイ

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This paper explores the short- and long-term contexts of the Japanese power shift in 2009. Following Merrill, Grofman, & Brunell (2008), four aspects of long-term political realignment are examined: (1) Change in party dominance; (2) Change in socio-demographic bases of party support; (3) Change in geographic bases of party support; and (4) Change in the structure of party competition. As a result, we find that the LDP has steadily lost its formerly dominant position and voting behavior has not accorded to the voters' social affiliations. As for the short-term context, we examine how the DPJ and its leaders have been varied in terms of policy preference and how their variety has contributed to the success of DPJ and the power shift in 2009.

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