DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF A RISK MODEL WITH PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF PATHOGENIC MICROORGANISMS IN WATERS

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  • 環境水における病原微生物数の確率分布を考慮したリスク評価モデル
  • カンキョウスイ ニ オケル ビョウゲン ビセイブツスウ ノ カクリツ ブンプ オ コウリョ シタ リスク ヒョウカ モデル

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Abstract

Conventional dose-response models have been applied to calculate infection. However, conventional dose-response models are not suitable to evaluate an infection risk by pathogens in natural water environment since they do not include an existence probability of pathogens. This study presents a novel model that estimates a “risk” of infection by pathogenic microorganisms in water environment. This model was developed by combining the conventional dose-response model and the existence probability of pathogenic microorganisms in water environment. The modified beta-model was suitable to describe the risk by pathogenic bacteria and parasites, while the modified logistic model well described the infection risk by viruses.

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