SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS USING A POLYGONAL SOURCE-AREA MODEL

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  • 多角形地震域モデルによる地震危険度解析
  • タカッケイ ジシンイキ モデル ニ ヨル ジシン キケンド カイセキ

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Abstract

A method of seismic hazard estimation using the polygonal source-area models is developed. In the Cornell's type seismic hazard analysis, the seismic region surrounding the analytical point is divided into small source-areas. In each source-area, parameters characterizing its seismic activities are assumed to be uniform and earthquakes are assumed to occur independently and randomly. Although the circular, fan-shaped, or rectangular models are commonly used as the shape of source-area models in Japan, they are too restrictive to represent the complicated shape of faults and plate boundaries. Hence, polygonal models are expected to be practical to represent them. In this paper, the formulation of the probability of epicentral distance by the use of a polygonal model is mainly described.

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