SYSTEMS APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT OF FIRE SPREADING AT EVACUATION SITES

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  • 避難場所の火災リスク評価に関するシステム論的研究
  • ヒナン バショ ノ カサイ リスク ヒョウカ ニ カンスル システムロンテキ

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Abstract

It is said that some evacuation places in urban areas are threatened by fire spreading. In this paper, first four systems (1, 2, 3, and 4) are drawn up as alternatives of the risk assessment system based on several fundamental models. Then, a verification test of them is done using two experimental criteria, and System 2 and 4 are selected as promising ones. Next, comparative simulation analyses are done and the following is shown:<br>i) System 2 places a greater estimate on risk than does System 4.<br>ii) System 2 is sensitive to “velocity of wind”, while System 4 is sensitive to “size of fire”.<br>Finally, application studies are carried out and the zone of about 50 or 70m from flare is assessed to be at danger in the case by either system.

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