Estimating Trends in Non-stationary Quasi-periodic Extreme Time Series and the Return Values

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  • 非定常・準周期的な極値外力の検定ならびに確率分布の推定法に関する研究
  • ヒテイジョウ ・ ジュンシュウキテキ ナ ゴクチ ガイリョク ノ ケンテイ ナラビニ カクリツ ブンプ ノ スイテイホウ ニ カンスル ケンキュウ

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Trends analysis for the annual maximum storm water levels and significant wave heights was conducted using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the record-breaking test. The trend test revealed that the extreme vales of the storm water level at Toyama and Maizuru have an increasing trend. The extreme significant wave heights at Hachinohe also show a tendency to increase. It is found that the storm water levels and wave heights at Hachinohe have increasing breaks of record. The estimation method for evaluating the return values in non-stationary quasi-periodic extreme time series was developed in which the scale and location parameter in extreme distribution function are in a linear manner with time. The estimated 2-year, 5-year and 10-year return values showed moderately changes in accordance with the observed extreme data.

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