UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF COASTAL FLOODING RISK UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
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- TSUJIO Daiki
- パシフィックコンサルタンツ（株） 大阪本社
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- BATES Paul
- University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- 気候変動を考慮した沿岸浸水リスクの不確実性および感度分析
- キコウ ヘンドウ オ コウリョ シタ エンガン シンスイ リスク ノ フカクジツセイ オヨビ カンド ブンセキ
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Abstract
This study aims at clarifing the uncertainty in climate change projections and coastal modelling with projection lead time to evaluate the risks of future coastal flooding. This study employed the results of practical risk analysis in the North Somerset coast in the UK under 10 different cases. The results of the sensitivity analysis clarified that storm tide is the highest impact factor in North Somerset in terms of flooding area and damage cost. The servey of uncertainty analysis found that the uncertainty in floodin area and damage cost increased with projection lead time. Application of this proposed procedure to actual coast can improve coastal risk assessment.
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 73 (2), I_1423-I_1428, 2017
Japan Society of Civil Engineers