AN PARAMETRIC STUDY ON POTENTIAL OF STORM SURGE IN TOKYO BAY

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  • 東京湾における高潮災害ポテンシャルの評価に関する検討
  • トウキョウワン ニ オケル タカシオ サイガイ ポテンシャル ノ ヒョウカ ニ カンスル ケントウ

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Abstract

 By using about 80 years historical data of tropical cyclone which passed through near Tokyo Bay area, this paper has estimated the potential of extreme storm surge event. Temporal variation of minimum central pressure and translation speed of along tropical cyclone tracks which will cause severe storm surge event has been determined from envelope curve of historical data, although tropical cyclone tracks themselves were assumed to same to those of original. Physical process of storm surge was simulated by the nonlinear shallow water equation. As a result, expected maximum storm surge at Tokyo was estimated about 1.8 m. This study clarified that northward cyclone tracks are especially dangerous for Tokyo bay because wind induced surge, rapid wind direction change, and harbor oscillation affect significantly.

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