民族的少数派となる恐怖-旧ユーゴ連邦解体過程におけるセルビア人を例として-

Yugoslavia disintegrated due to internal war in Croatia, Bosnia, and Kosovo. Six republics (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, and Macedonia) were newly born, and one more republic (Kosovo) is appearing. The warring party which participated in all three of the internal wars was the Serbs. In this paper, I reconstruct the process of these internal wars from the perspective of the Serbs. The international community considered Serbs, especially their leader, Slobodan Miloševic as an “evil, ” through a simple dichotomy, but Serbs always felt fear as a minority during the internal wars.<br>Generally speaking, when relations among ethnic groups are worsened, there will be a tendency for the minority to feel fear. Which factors will worsen interethnic relations? First of all, it is pointed to that a decline in the economy can deepen the cleavage among ethnic groups. Then, the security dilemma will function, especially when there is a certain pattern of demography, and/or interethnic history. Nevertheless, leadership will be needed when an ethnic minority makes a hostile action against the majority, even if the minority feels dissatisfaction, uneasiness, and fear.<br>Serbs were the largest ethnic group in Yugoslavia. According to the census in 1981, 36.3% of the total population was Serbs. Serbs were also the most powerful ethnic group in politics. Nevertheless, the Serbs had two problems in maintaining their power. Firstly, Serbs were an ethnic minority in some republics and autonomous regions which belonged to Serbia. In 1981, the proportion of Serbs was really 85.4% in Serbia (excluding two autonomous regions, Vojdodina, and Kosovo), and 54.4% in Vojvodina. However the proportion was 32.0% in Bosnia, 13.2% in Kosovo, 11.6% in Croatia, 3.3% in Montenegro, and 2.3% in Macedonia. Serbs in Bosnia, Croatia, and Kosovo would therefore drop from relative ethnic majority to minority when those areas became independent. Secondly, the ratio of Serbs in the population was decreasing year by year. The proportion of Serbs decreased from 14.2% to 12.2% in Croatia from 1971 to 1991, from 37.2% to 31.3% in Bosnia, and from 18.4% to 10.0% in Kosovo. In contrast to the Serbs, the proportion of Muslims in Bosnia increased from 39.6% to 43.7%, and the proportion of Albanians in Kosovo from 73.7% to 84.0%.<br>Serbs hoped to hinder the independence of the republics from Yugoslavia, but there were no mechanisms for mediation in the conflict between ethnic groups, and no leadership for resolving the ethnic conflict as had been provided by Josip Broz Tito. Particularly, the federal leaders could not use their power to support new leaders in the republics, because the latter obtained more democratic legitimacy through democratic elections in 1990. Serbs who wanted to maintain their status as an ethnic majority could only build their quasi-states, and attack the newly-born states.