確率判断における認知バイアスの検討

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タイトル別名
  • A study of the cognitive biases in probability judgments
  • カクリツ ハンダン ニ オケル ニンチ バイアス ノ ケントウ

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説明

Why are people susceptible to biases when they make probability judgments? This study explores the thinking processes involved in such judgments and er-examines the mental model of probability (Itoh, 1995), corresponding to the conceptual model of probability (Hawkins & Kapadia, 1984). Creating a set of problems that people are likely to encounter in their daily lives and that require probability judgments to solve them, this study asked participants to write freely about their grounds for and the consequences of their predictions. Analysis of the responses identified four ways of judging probability: (1) use of basic mathematical probability laws, (2) misuse of basic mathematical probability laws, (3) use of arithmetic, and (4) use of fortune. These results suggest that people have a cognitive framework consisting these four patterns, and that biases arise from the use of the last three patterns. It is proposed that the division of these judgment patterns resembles a form of allocation system within a multi-modular mind.

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