A STUDY ON WORLD STEEL DEMANDS CONSIDERING SERVICE DEMAND CHANGE

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  • HIGASHI Shogo
    京都大学大学院 工学研究科都市環境工学専攻
  • KAWASE Reina
    京都大学大学院 工学研究科都市環境工学専攻
  • MATSUOKA Yuzuru
    京都大学大学院 工学研究科都市環境工学専攻

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  • サービス需要を考慮した世界の鉄鋼需要量に関する研究
  • サービス ジュヨウ オ コウリョ シタ セカイ ノ テッコウ ジュヨウリョウ ニ カンスル ケンキュウ

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 This study focused on steel as an example of energy-intensive materials, and developed a model to estimate 1) service demands supplied from goods stocks, 2) the amount of steel stock included in the goods stocks, and 3) steel demands. This model was applied to time period for 2005-2050 with the assumption of four future scenarios including FIX scenario, in which parameters were fixed at a level of 2005.<br> Reduction effects of steel stocks and steel demands were analyzed by the model. As the results, the steel demands of MIX scenario, which introduced high performance materials and the efficiency improvement of goods stocks, was the lowest among the scenarios and it showed 40% reduction compared with FIX scenario. The possibility for shifting towards dematerialized society was indicated, with keeping the service demands at the level of 2005.

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