A DERIVABLE FORMULA FOR ESTIMATING THE OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION AT THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM AIR TEMPERATURE, WATER VAPOR PRESSURE, CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND TOTAL OZONE AMOUNT AT THE SCREEN HEICHT

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  • 地上の気温,水蒸気圧,二酸化炭素濃度,オゾン全量から地球放射を推定する公式の理論的誘導
  • 地上の気温,水蒸気圧,二酸化炭素濃度,オゾン全量から地球出放射を推定する公式の理論的誘導
  • チジョウ ノ キオン スイジョウキアツ ニサンカタンソ ノウド オゾン ゼンリ

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A new formula for estimating the outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmos-phere from surface meteorological elements has been derived theoretically, by extending Nakagawa's (1983) procedure. The derivable formula, equation (48) in the text equivalent to the summation of equations (27), (28), (32), (36) and (44), shows us that the outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere is proportional to the black body radiation at the surface air temperature, and that its proportional coefficient is a function of water vapor pressure, carbon dioxide concentration and total ozone amount at the screen height, cloud top height and tropopause height. The meridional distribution of the outgoing longwave radiation in the northern hemisphere was predicted by the derivable formula based on climatological data. Predicted values fit those observed from meteorological satellites, except for the sub-tropical region where the predicted values are slightly smaller. By deriving this formula, the present study made it possible to discuss the changes in the outgoing longwave radiation and the climate due to the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by means of one-dimensional climate models. By applying this formula to the most sim-plified global climate model without all the feedback mechanisms based on the minimum entropy exchange theory, the meridional distribution of changes in surface air tempera-tures due to doubling the amount of carbon dioxide presently in the atmosphere has been estimated. As a result, on the global average, the increase of temperature is 0.75°C. This is comparable with Ohring and Adler's (1978) result, but remarkably smaller than Manabe and Wetherald's (1980). This is mainly because of absence of feedback mechanisms, especially ice feedback, in the present study.

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