Prediction of future cost savings in long-term care and medical care if Japan achieves the health expectancy target of Health Japan 21 (second term)

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  • TOMATA Yasutake
    Division of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Forensic Medicine, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine
  • TSUJI Ichiro
    Division of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Forensic Medicine, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine
  • SUGIYAMA Kemmyo
    Division of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Forensic Medicine, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine
  • HASHIMOTO Shuji
    Department of Hygiene, Fujita Health University School of Medicine
  • KAWADO Miyuki
    Department of Hygiene, Fujita Health University School of Medicine
  • YAMADA Hiroya
    Department of Hygiene, Fujita Health University School of Medicine
  • SEKO Rumi
    Faculty of Nursing, Fujita Health University School of Health Sciences
  • MURAKAMI Yoshitaka
    Department of Medical Statistics, Toho University
  • HAYAKAWA Takehito
    Department of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine
  • HAYASHI Masayuki
    Department of Information Science, Fukushima Medical University School of Nursing
  • KATO Masahiro
    Department of Health and Public Welfare, Aichi Prefecture
  • NODA Tatsuya
    Department of Public Health, Health Management and Policy, Nara Medical University
  • OJIMA Toshiyuki
    Department of Community Health and Preventive Medicine, Hamamatsu University School of Medicine

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Other Title
  • 健康日本21（第二次）の健康寿命の目標を達成した場合における介護費・医療費の節減額に関する研究
  • ケンコウ ニホン 21(ダイニジ)ノ ケンコウ ジュミョウ ノ モクヒョウ オ タッセイ シタ バアイ ニ オケル カイゴヒ ・ イリョウヒ ノ セツゲンガク ニ カンスル ケンキュウ

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Objectives An earlier study using the data from the Japanese Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) system reported a scenario for achieving the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term): future gains in health expectancy from 2011 to 2020 must be larger than gains in expectancy. According to this scenario (the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario), the proportion of disability (cases≥Care Level 2 in LTCI disability certification) will gradually decrease by 1% per year from 2011. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost savings in long-term care and medical care if the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario is achieved.<br/>Methods We used data from Japanese national statistics and a survey conducted in Osaki city, Miyagi. The natural course of disability cases (≥Care Level 2) was estimated under the assumption that the future population composition would be equal to the population projections for Japan and the future proportion of disabilities for each age grade would be equal to that of 2010. Then, the decrease in the number of disabilities based on the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario was calculated. Finally, the cost savings in long-term care and medical care associated with the assumed decrease in the number of disability cases was calculated.<br/>Results When the disability cases (≥Care Level 2) were shifted to “no disability certification (not requiring care),” a total estimated cost reduction of 5,291 billion yen was achieved from 2011 to 2020. Furthermore, a total estimated reduction of 2,491 billion yen was achieved for the same period when all disability shifts to “Care Level 1” were accounted for.<br/>Conclusion As a rough calculation, if the Health Japan 21 (second term) target is achieved, approximately 2,500–5,300 billion yen will be saved in the cost of long-term care and medical care.

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