The Impact of Knowledge Sharing on the Bullwhip Effect

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  • 在庫に関する知識共有のブルウィップ効果に及ぼす影響について
  • 在庫に関する知識共有のブルウィップ効果に及ぼす影響について : 在庫シミュレーションモデルの提案と検証
  • ザイコ ニ カンスル チシキ キョウユウ ノ ブルウィップ コウカ ニ オヨボス エイキョウ ニ ツイテ : ザイコ シミュレーションモデル ノ テイアン ト ケンショウ
  • - 在庫シミュレーションモデルの提案と検証 -
  • - A Proposal and Verification of an Inventory Simulation Model -

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Abstract

The bullwhip effect is one of the most important issues in supply chain management. This phenomenon describes the way in which fluctuation in demand increases upstream in the supply chain. Inaccurate demand forecasting accompanying a lack of communication is well known as a cause of the bullwhip effect. Nevertheless, there are few arguments as to the influence of the bullwhip effect on demand forecasting as generated through communication with business contacts. In this paper, we propose the framework and simulation model of a supply chain system based on demand forecasting built through communication with business contacts. Here, a simulation model was constructed by modeling past transaction data as knowledge sharing with business contacts. A recurrent neural network that is excellent in time-series prediction was used for demand forecasting in this simulation. We confirmed the effectiveness of our proposal through comparative experiments using inventory management simulation on conventional models and the proposed model.

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